Medium-term Predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm Solar Radio Flux with the Adaptive Kalman Filter
نویسندگان
چکیده
The solar radio flux at F10.7 cm and F30 is required by most models characterizing the state of Earth's upper atmosphere, such as thermosphere ionosphere to specify satellite orbits, re-entry services, collision avoidance maneuvers modeling space debris evolution. We develop a method called RESONANCE ("Radio Emissions from Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer-aided Estimator") for prediction 13-month smoothed monthly mean indices 1-24 months ahead. algorithm includes three steps. First, we apply optimized running technique effectively reduce noise in data. Second, provide initial predictions using McNish-Lincoln method. Finally, improve these developing an adaptive Kalman filter with error statistics identification. root-mean-square-error lead times 1 24 5-27 sfu 3-16 index, which statistically outperforms current algorithms use. proposed approach based on universal can be applied process under study provided any other forecasting Furthermore, present systematic evaluation forecast application test performance past ESA campaigns payloads, rocket bodies, that re-entered June 2006 2019. results demonstrate obtained general also improvements forecasts epochs.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1538-4365', '0067-0049']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/abef6d